Back in July 2018, I wrote 'A Deep Dive Into Enrollment Numbers', a look at current enrollment numbers and future possibilities in light of the closure of one of the district's elementary schools. As we move further from that decision, I don't think such an detailed review is necessary (as the competing demographic reports are now more than 3 years out of date). However, I feel it is still important to look at where we are and where we are going.
I should note I have not spoken with anyone from the School District or the School Board regarding enrollment, nor do I speak for them. While the numbers I have used below come directly from the district, the compilation of data into charts, the analysis and the conclusions are strictly my own.
K-8 enrollment has remained relative flat for the past 4 years. In the past year, general education students are down slightly, while Special Education students are up slightly. Overall, enrollment is down 3 students over last year, and down 25 students in the past 3 years.
Enrollment by school is a little more varied. Because much of the new development in town has taken place in the same area along Sharp Road and that area is all designated to go to the same school, enrollment at Beeler has increased dramatically.
The FES numbers shown are the maximum number students allowed in the schools based on NJ Department of Education regulations. Both Beeler and Rice are slightly above 90% of capacity. However, it should be noted, the 5th Grade class at Beeler is far larger than any other class, so there will be some relief come September - though until the size of the next grade coming is known, it is hard to determine how much. The Beeler 5th grade class graduating to middle school had 119 students. The next highest grade at Beeler was 2nd grade with 99 students. The lowest is last years class, 1st grade, at 69 students.
Rice will not get relief from a large class graduating to middle school. Rice is closer to its capacity because much of the district Special Education classes are held there, so by regulation, the FES is lower - fewer students are allowed in each classroom for Special Education.
Drilling down further, after looking at number of children in each school, an even more important question is number of children per classroom. For this section, I will only be looking at general education. Special Education classrooms vary widely in the number of students per class, so trying to summarize data into any meaningful statistic is difficult.
For general education, class size has remained stable. Some grades went up slightly, some went down slightly.
What happens next year? The 8th grade class graduating to high school is by far the largest class, 34 students more than the nearest grade. More importantly, the 8th grade is more than 100 students larger than the average of the last 4 years of classes entering the district. If that trend continues, the incoming 1st grade class will be 100 students less than the outgoing class.
For elementary schools, the 5th grade class graduating to middle school is 10% larger than the next highest grade and more than 20% higher than the current first grade class.
Looking long term, the chart directly above is the number of babies born to Evesham mothers in the last 15 years. Babies born in 2017 will enter the school system in 2022. While the 2017 numbers rebounded slightly over the prior 2 years, they are no where near the peak from earlier in the century. Babies born to Evesham residents obviously isn't the only thing to look at - families moving to Evesham with young children is probably even more important - but is an important metric to look at in demography.
Conclusion: Like I said last year, these are just numbers. Your personal experience may be different and I in no means intend to negate how it feels. If you are a Beeler parent and your school has gone from 406 students in 2016 to 593 students in 2019, your school will definitely feel more crowded.
Based on enrollment trends over the past 10 years and Evesham birth rates, it would appear that children graduating out of the district will be more than those entering the district, leading to lower enrollment next year and into the future. However, the enrollment is not evenly spread out among all the schools, which may need to be addressed by the district at some point.
Like my Facebook Page to get the latest posts - A View From Evesham. You can email me at MarltonNeil@yahoo.com.
I should note I have not spoken with anyone from the School District or the School Board regarding enrollment, nor do I speak for them. While the numbers I have used below come directly from the district, the compilation of data into charts, the analysis and the conclusions are strictly my own.
K-8 enrollment has remained relative flat for the past 4 years. In the past year, general education students are down slightly, while Special Education students are up slightly. Overall, enrollment is down 3 students over last year, and down 25 students in the past 3 years.
Enrollment by school is a little more varied. Because much of the new development in town has taken place in the same area along Sharp Road and that area is all designated to go to the same school, enrollment at Beeler has increased dramatically.
The FES numbers shown are the maximum number students allowed in the schools based on NJ Department of Education regulations. Both Beeler and Rice are slightly above 90% of capacity. However, it should be noted, the 5th Grade class at Beeler is far larger than any other class, so there will be some relief come September - though until the size of the next grade coming is known, it is hard to determine how much. The Beeler 5th grade class graduating to middle school had 119 students. The next highest grade at Beeler was 2nd grade with 99 students. The lowest is last years class, 1st grade, at 69 students.
Rice will not get relief from a large class graduating to middle school. Rice is closer to its capacity because much of the district Special Education classes are held there, so by regulation, the FES is lower - fewer students are allowed in each classroom for Special Education.
Drilling down further, after looking at number of children in each school, an even more important question is number of children per classroom. For this section, I will only be looking at general education. Special Education classrooms vary widely in the number of students per class, so trying to summarize data into any meaningful statistic is difficult.
For general education, class size has remained stable. Some grades went up slightly, some went down slightly.
For elementary schools, the 5th grade class graduating to middle school is 10% larger than the next highest grade and more than 20% higher than the current first grade class.
Looking long term, the chart directly above is the number of babies born to Evesham mothers in the last 15 years. Babies born in 2017 will enter the school system in 2022. While the 2017 numbers rebounded slightly over the prior 2 years, they are no where near the peak from earlier in the century. Babies born to Evesham residents obviously isn't the only thing to look at - families moving to Evesham with young children is probably even more important - but is an important metric to look at in demography.
Conclusion: Like I said last year, these are just numbers. Your personal experience may be different and I in no means intend to negate how it feels. If you are a Beeler parent and your school has gone from 406 students in 2016 to 593 students in 2019, your school will definitely feel more crowded.
Based on enrollment trends over the past 10 years and Evesham birth rates, it would appear that children graduating out of the district will be more than those entering the district, leading to lower enrollment next year and into the future. However, the enrollment is not evenly spread out among all the schools, which may need to be addressed by the district at some point.
List of All Blog Posts
Like my Facebook Page to get the latest posts - A View From Evesham. You can email me at MarltonNeil@yahoo.com.