Back in July 2018, I wrote 'A Deep Dive Into Enrollment Numbers', a look at then-current enrollment numbers and future possibilities in light of the closure of one of the district's elementary schools. As we move further from that decision, I don't think such a detailed review is necessary (as the competing demographic reports are now more than 4 years out of date). However, I feel it is still important to look at where we are and where we are going. This blog post looks very similar to last year's report.
I should note I have not spoken with anyone from the School District or the School Board regarding enrollment, nor do I speak for them. I exchanged a couple emails with the district's Business Administrator to obtain enrollment data and information regarding paid Kindergarten via an OPRA request. So while the numbers I have used below come directly from the district, the compilation of data into charts, the analysis, and the conclusions are strictly my own.
K-8 enrollment remains relatively flat since 2016. Overall, there are 16 more students in the district than last year, and 9 less than from June 2016. Elementary enrollment is down about 18% from its high in Spring 2003.
Looking at individual schools, while there were no significant changes over last year, Rice creeps ever closer to capacity.
Why is Rice Elementary much closer to capacity than any other school?
It appears this is NOT a product of overcrowded classrooms. The average number of students in Grades 1 through 5 at Rice is in line with other schools. It is more a result of having many of the district-wide Special Education classrooms at Rice. Special Education classrooms frequently have a smaller permissible number of students per classroom. While certainly not ideal, if needed, a few of those classrooms could be relocated to other schools.
Why are class sizes at Jaggard higher than other schools?
This just looks to be the result of math. Allow me to explain.
In September 2019, the 2nd grade at Jaggard had 65 students. Does the district make classrooms of 22, 22 and 21 students (above the average)? Or classrooms of 16, 16, 16 and 17 (below the average), which also results in the extra cost of another teacher and possibly aides? In September, district-wide, there was only one 2nd Grade classroom with 16 or fewer students, so it appears the decision was made for the larger classrooms.
Similarly, there were 66 3rd grade students at Jaggard. So the decision again, 3 classes of 22, or 4 classes of 16, 16, 17 and 17? District-wide, there were no 3rd grade classrooms of 16 students or fewer.
4th and 5th grade faced similar decisions for Jaggard, with 63 and 66 students respectively.
(Just a note: these decision would have been made during the summer, not in September.)
Average class size by grade remains relatively stable. Three grades went down, two grades went up.
The number of births to Evesham mothers is down from 2017, after two straight years of increases. (2018 is the last year on record.) The birth rate will affect the class size 5-6 years into the future.
Conclusions
Again, let me stress - these are MY conclusions. I don't know how the district views their enrollment numbers, whether they have any concerns, or what their plans are for the future.
Based on the data, there does not appear to be any immediate concerns regarding capacity district-wide. While no one wants 'full' schools, the district is currently 648 students from capacity. The distribution of students between the schools may become an issue in the future. Rice, the school closest to capacity, can move some of its inclusion classes to other schools if the need arises.
Beeler is the next closest to capacity, and much of the recent new development in Evesham is zoned to Beeler. It certainly bears watching in the future, as there isn't necessarily an easy fix if Beeler population increases. The difficult 'fix' may be redistricting - which could be moving neighborhood x to a different school, or it could be a district-wide issue to tackle.
It should also be noted that ALL of the 193 full-day Kindergarten students are paid tuition students. This is money that is added directly to the bottom line (less expenses for teachers, etc). Should capacity issues ever arise, the school could accept fewer Kindergarten students, or shift where full-time Kindergarten students attend class.
List of Previous Blog Posts
I should note I have not spoken with anyone from the School District or the School Board regarding enrollment, nor do I speak for them. I exchanged a couple emails with the district's Business Administrator to obtain enrollment data and information regarding paid Kindergarten via an OPRA request. So while the numbers I have used below come directly from the district, the compilation of data into charts, the analysis, and the conclusions are strictly my own.
K-8 enrollment remains relatively flat since 2016. Overall, there are 16 more students in the district than last year, and 9 less than from June 2016. Elementary enrollment is down about 18% from its high in Spring 2003.
Looking at individual schools, while there were no significant changes over last year, Rice creeps ever closer to capacity.
Why is Rice Elementary much closer to capacity than any other school?
It appears this is NOT a product of overcrowded classrooms. The average number of students in Grades 1 through 5 at Rice is in line with other schools. It is more a result of having many of the district-wide Special Education classrooms at Rice. Special Education classrooms frequently have a smaller permissible number of students per classroom. While certainly not ideal, if needed, a few of those classrooms could be relocated to other schools.
Why are class sizes at Jaggard higher than other schools?
This just looks to be the result of math. Allow me to explain.
In September 2019, the 2nd grade at Jaggard had 65 students. Does the district make classrooms of 22, 22 and 21 students (above the average)? Or classrooms of 16, 16, 16 and 17 (below the average), which also results in the extra cost of another teacher and possibly aides? In September, district-wide, there was only one 2nd Grade classroom with 16 or fewer students, so it appears the decision was made for the larger classrooms.
Similarly, there were 66 3rd grade students at Jaggard. So the decision again, 3 classes of 22, or 4 classes of 16, 16, 17 and 17? District-wide, there were no 3rd grade classrooms of 16 students or fewer.
4th and 5th grade faced similar decisions for Jaggard, with 63 and 66 students respectively.
(Just a note: these decision would have been made during the summer, not in September.)
Average class size by grade remains relatively stable. Three grades went down, two grades went up.
The number of births to Evesham mothers is down from 2017, after two straight years of increases. (2018 is the last year on record.) The birth rate will affect the class size 5-6 years into the future.
Conclusions
Again, let me stress - these are MY conclusions. I don't know how the district views their enrollment numbers, whether they have any concerns, or what their plans are for the future.
Based on the data, there does not appear to be any immediate concerns regarding capacity district-wide. While no one wants 'full' schools, the district is currently 648 students from capacity. The distribution of students between the schools may become an issue in the future. Rice, the school closest to capacity, can move some of its inclusion classes to other schools if the need arises.
Beeler is the next closest to capacity, and much of the recent new development in Evesham is zoned to Beeler. It certainly bears watching in the future, as there isn't necessarily an easy fix if Beeler population increases. The difficult 'fix' may be redistricting - which could be moving neighborhood x to a different school, or it could be a district-wide issue to tackle.
It should also be noted that ALL of the 193 full-day Kindergarten students are paid tuition students. This is money that is added directly to the bottom line (less expenses for teachers, etc). Should capacity issues ever arise, the school could accept fewer Kindergarten students, or shift where full-time Kindergarten students attend class.
List of Previous Blog Posts
Like my Facebook Page to get the latest posts - A View From Evesham. You can email me at MarltonNeil@yahoo.com.
NJ Birth Data can be found here:
https://www-doh.state.nj.us/doh-shad/query/selection/birth/BirthSelection.html
NJ Birth Data can be found here:
https://www-doh.state.nj.us/doh-shad/query/selection/birth/BirthSelection.html